Tymoshenko and the Kremlin
have put aside years of mutual suspicion to unite against Ukrainian
President Viktor Yushchenko, the driving force behind Kiev`s ambitions
to join NATO and Tymoshenko`s rival in a bitter struggle for power.
The
new warmth was on show on Thursday when Tymoshenko -- who two years ago
accused Russia of extorting cash from Ukraine in a row over gas -- had
a cordial meeting with her Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin followed
by unscheduled, late-night talks with President Dmitry Medvedev.
"The
tactical interests of Moscow and Tymoshenko have coincided. They have
the same main opponent and that is Yushchenko," said Fyodor Lukyanov,
editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.
The calculations
of both sides are focused on the next presidential vote, which must
take place no later than January 2010. The field could include
Yushchenko, Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovich, a former prime minister.
The
Kremlin backed Yanukovich`s failed bid to win a 2004 presidential
election, but opinion polls suggest he does not have enough support
outside the Russian-speaking areas of the country to win the presidency
now.
"Moscow cannot find common ground with Yushchenko and is
waiting for a new president to appear," said Oleksander Dergachyov, an
independent analyst in Kiev.
"Tymoshenko is, of course, not the sole alternative, but her candidature is a good one against the background of Yushchenko."
After
their talks on a new gas supply deal on Thursday, Putin said reports
Tymoshenko could be investigated in Ukraine for treason were comical
and joked that Yushchenko was a "trickster" for commandeering the
aircraft in which Tymoshenko had been scheduled to fly to Mosocw.
FROSTY
That
atmosphere was in marked contrast to the frostiness of the past.
Tymoshenko, with then ally Yushchenko, led the 2004 "Orange
Revolution," a wave of street protests that defeated Yanukovich and was
lambasted in Moscow as a Western plot.
In a 2007 article in U.S.
journal Foreign Affairs, she wrote that the West must contain Russia`s
"imperial designs" on its neighbors and accused Putin of suppressing
dissent at home.
Russia`s Foreign Ministry issued a statement
calling the article an "anti-Russian manifesto, an attempt to draw new
dividing lines through Europe and take the world back, at the least, to
the atmosphere of the Cold War."
Charges of forgery and smuggling
gas were brought against her in connection with her activities at the
head of a private gas trading firm in the mid-1990s and an arrest
warrant was issued for her in Russia. But Russian prosecutors dropped
charges against her in December 2005.
Russia`s brief war with Georgia in August turned Tymoshenko`s relations with the Kremlin around.
Yushchenko
went to Tbilisi to show support for Saakashvili, he reaffirmed his
desire to take Ukraine into NATO despite opposition from many voters
and told Russia`s navy it must leave the Ukrainian base it leases by
2017.
But Tymoshenko took a more calibrated approach and criticized the president for backing Georgia too stridently.
"Tymoshenko
behaved like a real Ukrainian," said Kirill Frolov of Moscow`s
Institute for CIS Countries, a pro-Kremlin think tank which studies
ex-Soviet states. "Why should Ukraine take someone`s side?"
Differences
between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko over Georgia were an important factor
in bringing down their fragile coalition last month. Yushchenko can
call an early parliamentary election if efforts to resurrect the
coalition fail.
Tymoshenko`s new efforts to distance herself from
Yushchenko`s staunchly pro-Western line may have more than a little to
do with her ambition to replace him as president, said Moscow-based
analyst Lukyanov.
"For Tymoshenko it is very important to win
extra votes in those parts of the country where they do not welcome
NATO and all of that," he said.
Reuters
